"ROOKIE RADAR"(Pre-Season Edition)
Each week on Thursdays, the Fantasy Godfathers will release their "ROOKIE RADAR" piece, which will touch on any and all rookies that have a fantasy relevance. For the past 2011 season, lets just say that no rookie class in the history of football will ever have as huge of a fantasy impact as the players from last year like Cam Newton, AJ Green, Dalton, Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Helu, etc. That class was extra special in so many ways so do not expect the same type of fantasy success from this year's class. Nonetheless there are a few potential Pro-Bowlers here and maybe even 1-2 potential Hall of Famers, so lets get to it. Below is a list of the top 10 most relevant fantasy rookies heading into the pre-season 2012 season:
1. Justin Blackmon, WR Jacksonville: This Oklahoma State WR is going to get the most early season action of any rookie WR for two reasons. First he won the Biletnikoff Award as the best NCAA WR not once, but two straight years!! He is not the biggest receiver this year at 6'1 210 lbs, but he does have the best hands and natural ability to go get the ball. The second reason Blackmon is going to get the most action for a rookie WR early on will be that he is now a Jaguar and the Jags had the worst passing offense in football last year, and although that will hurt Justin's value a bit, things can't get any worse over there and Blackmon may surprise us all with 5-6 TDs next year. Mike Thomas is no longer in Jacksonville which opens the door for targets even more for Blackmon but he will have to contend with Laurent Robinson who showed serious #1 potential receiver skills in a half season in Dallas last year. The rookie wall is not the biggest obstacle for Blackmon to overcome in order to have success this, Blaine Gabbert is.
2. Trent Richardson, RB Cleveland: This Alabama running back should get a nice chance to make a legit impact as a Brown this season given the turmoil that plagued the team last season due to the Hillis and Hardesty revolving injury show. We are not into over-hyping rookie RBs becasue the seldom pan out with consistent/reliable production but Trent does have skills that vaguely resemble an Adrian Peterson type runner. Richardson was a back up RB to Mark Ingram two years ago and we all witnessed the problems Ingram had last year staying healthy and getting touches in a RBC situation. Just as Blackmon will be the top rookie receiver drafted this season, so will Richardson out of the RBs. Also ironically similar to Blaine Gabbert being Blackmon's greatest obstacle, we see a rookie QB for Richardson providing the same type of obstacle to hinder Trent's fantasy value. Expect 5-6 TDs at best this year for Trent.
3. Robert Griffin III, QB Washington: Griffin should be the first QB drafted in fantasy this season for the sole reason that he will cancel out some of his throwing issues all rookie’s experience by being able to rush for solid yardage each game. There is a ton of speculation that maybe this kid will be able to scramble for yardage like Michael Vick could a few years ago so that small chance alone will entice thousands of owners to snatch him up as a back up QB. We are backing off Griffin in drafts unless he is there after round 10-12 (depending on the size of your league), but he is intriguing nonetheless. The Godfathers feel it will be Griffin’s ability to sustain some banging after running and avoid constant injuries that will be the deciding factor to whether he has a solid fantasy season or an average mediocre one. We would take Griffin over Luck, fantasy wise, by a landslide due to the running feature of RG3 and the fact he will be part of a much better team overall with the likes of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan there now to help Santana Moss.
4. Brian Quick, WR St. Louis: At 6’3” and 220 lbs this kids a pretty solid sized beast coming into the NFL out of Appalachian State. Being a Ram this season means he will get the chance to make an impact if he catches on to the playbook “Quick-ly” and can establish a connection with Sam Bradford as Bradford may be welcoming him with open arms given his other top receiver would be Danny Amendola who is more of a slot receiver size wise. Amendola is coming off a couple of injuries that shelved him for the end of the 2011 season so the door is open for Brian to make a Quick impact.
5. Michael Floyd, WR Arizona: It’s quite possible this Floyd kid is the most talented of all rookie WRs out there right now but his situation in Arizona is less attractive than Quick or Blackmon’s as Floyd will be the clear #2-3 option behind Larry Fitzgerald. Having an opportunity to shadow Larry Fitz is going to make Floyd the best he can be, so Floyd may be a #2 fantasy WR by his 3rd year. Like Quick, Floyd is big at 6’3” tall and 220 lbs. If Fitz ever gets Whacked early on in 2012, Floyd value would triple overnight.
6. Doug Martin, RB Tampa Bay: This product of Boise State is anxious to show what he can do as an NFL runner but it will take time for Martin to supplant LeGarrette Blount as the teams lead back. If Martin can prove to be a more efficient blocker than Blount in pre-season, it is possible the job could be won by Martin, we just see Blount stepping up a bit now that there is fresh new blood in town looking to take his gig.
7. Andrew Luck, QB Indianapolis: This kid was the #1 pick in the draft, but he is also a clear example of the duel universes that exists in the NFL with football on one hand and fantasy football in the other realm. Fantasy Football strategy and regular football strategy are tow very different things and Luck personifies this distinction. He may end up being the only Hall of Fame QB from this year’s class but it will take a few years for him to come into his own as the team is in disarray and will need to fill all the holes left by Manning, who made everyone around him 10 times better than they really are in reality. Reality will be clear here to start 2012 as Luck will have more ‘growing pain’ games than big ones. Opposing teams will only have to worry about Reggie Wayne now with Garcon gone and Luck has a poor defense and no running game to help alleviate pressure. Andrew will not begin his NFL career with ‘luck’ (other than the 30 million dollar part).
8. David Wilson, RB New York Giants: This Virginia Tech star brings his game to the big apple where he will need to fill in for the departed Brandon Jacobs touches wise, not brute force running wise. Wilson stands 5’10” tall and weighs 206 lbs so he’s far from Brandon Jacobs so he will bring a new style of running to the Giants who had it all last year when Bradshaw and Jacobs were healthy as one was quick and the other mighty thick. Given Ahmad Bradshaw’s habitual foot ailments, we see a chance for Wilson to get more time than anticipated when Ahmad gets Whacked.
9. Coby Fleener, TE Indianapolis: This kid is out of Stanford and on this list for two reasons. One he’s a rookie so that’s half the battle to make this list, then his QB will be a rookie scrambling for his life more often than not and when QBs are hurried they love to chuck it quick over the middle to tight ends. Fleener will likely be left on the waiver wire to start this fantasy season but he is one who could be a mid-year BYE week fill in guy in deeper leagues. The bottom line key here is that Luck and Fleener played together in college so the connection is already there for conistent hook-ups.
10. Kendall Wright, WR Baylor: This pick is one that is a bit hazy as a perfect storm of circumstances will need to happen in order for Kendall to come out producing, so do not draft this guy out the gate. He will be a Titan this year and will most certainly be behind Kenny Britt and Nate Washington for targets and Wright should have a 2-3 TD rookie season. Wright is only 5’10” and just under 200 lbs so nothing imposing about him. We think if anyone were to get hurt that would help this kid it would be an injury to Nate Washington as he is the guy who currently ‘stretches the field’ for the Titans offense and Wright has a best chance to assume that role over any other. Wright showed he can produce #1 WR numbers as he went for 108 grabs and 14 TDs against Big 12 opponents his senior year at Baylor. There's a B.O.L.O. (Be On the Look-Out) for two other guys who just missed making our top 10: Ryan Tannehill, QB Miami: Could have a huge advantage having his coach from college accompany him to the Dolphins. A.J. Jenkins, WR San Francisco: With Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and Michael Crabtree all vying for looks in 9er land, it will be tough for Jenkins to break in but Crabtree has been injury prone and Moss is coming out of retirement so could be relevant by mid-season. |